我说“好肥啊，这么看过去象一个大榴莲插着两根筷子”

妞深以为然，我越想越觉得这比喻十分精妙，不由得自鸣得意道“这比喻的功夫，堪称当代莫泊桑”

妞“不是嬷嬷桑，应该是妈妈桑”

我成吉思汗-_-||

  一早，和妞前往集合地，发现呼呼啦啦来了一百多号人，装满两辆大巴，在领队乌狼带领下前往目的地。（爬上过八座海拔8000米以上的雪山，国家队的）

  这段海岸线比起东西冲要轻松些，但不少人还是第一次在海岸边的岩石堆爬上爬下，队伍被拉得好长，妞和我一马当先，和几个体力不错平衡感较佳的伙伴始终走在最前面。

  队伍走走停停，路过几个风景秀丽的沙滩，休整了几次，吃了自带的午餐，十几个人凑成一堆杀人。

  穿越持续了一整天，我们冲在最前面的成功穿越最险的岩滩，剩下的人则选择绕路，我们先期到达终点，回到了大巴，剩下的人在一个钟头内才陆续赶到，待到凑齐全员回返时，天色已黑。

  海景不错，空气清新，运动量也够了，交了不少新朋友，我喜欢这样的活动。

由于大家实力不一，队伍在岩滩拉得很长

我跳下海，把妞举上去，她站的地方非常滑

和妞在沙滩上留下第一串脚印

夕阳，海边

不打算再搬了，再搬就成难民了。就在此地好了，界面不错，看着舒坦。

访问量神马的皆是浮云，原旨就是有个地方发发牢骚，这地方不但可以发牢骚，连发骚都没人管了。

写的东西，营养品不多，排泄物不少，这也算是垃圾外输，避免了污染祖国大好河山。

3岁，不尿裤子；
5岁，能自己吃饭；
18岁，能自己开车；
20岁，有性生活；
30岁，有钱；
40岁，很有钱；
60岁，有性生活；
70岁，能自己开车；
80岁，能自己吃饭；
90岁，不尿裤子；
100岁，能不挂在墙上；
300岁，还挂在墙上。

不知道片头Mark被女朋友甩掉这件事是否真实，但片尾Mark在自己一手创立的facebook上给这个女孩发了邀请，并满怀期待地不断刷新着网页等待回复的一幕，让人唏嘘不已，既呼应了片头，也给刻画Mark这个传奇人物画上了完美的一笔。他的单纯与激情，自负和孤独在机械般的鼠标反复的点击下暴露无遗。

这既是传记片，也是一部非典型的青春励志片。之所以非典型，大概是因为主人公的成功显得过于容易，而全片并没有着力刻画主人公吃了多少苦，遭了多少罪，也没有大肆吹捧他成功后的层层光环，而是让故事始终围绕着历史上让Mark麻烦不断地几场官司以及重要合作伙伴的丑闻，还包括了Mark自己起初对待感情的幼稚。这里不乏背信弃义剽窃他人创意的嫌疑，也在暗示他为了商业利益而抛弃了最初的伙伴，最后落得虽然功成名就却略感孤寂的结局。但有趣的是，尽管负面不断，看过电影，几乎没有人会对Mark产生厌恶，一方面是因为成王败寇——Facebook很好用，一方面是因为他是个天才，纵然被控剽窃与背叛，仍不能抹煞他是个天才，而最最重要的是，他，和他的网站，非常cool。

所以，干成大事儿的动机并不必须是构建和谐社会或是造福天下百姓，它可以仅仅是为了泡妞或者让甩了你的那个妞重新审视你那么简单。虽然在中国这个动力似乎摆不上台面，但它的确比五讲四美三热爱更接近人类进化的源动力。

此外，作为一个风险投资从业者，看到影片中不时闪过的风投的身影，我心里五味杂陈。这些嗅觉灵敏的人被二十岁出头的创业者嘲笑和奚落着，但仍厚着脸皮抛出橄榄枝，改组公司，稀释团队股份，踢掉不再有用的成员。他们或许会被人们当作成功路上的搭顺风车的人，但是不可否认，没有他们厚颜无耻的介入，facebook纵然再cool，也难以在短短几年间成为风靡全球5亿用户，坐拥200多亿刀乐市值的第一社交网络。估计我这辈子做不成Mark这样的天才人物，但有生之年能够发现并帮助这样的天才创造伟大，也勉强聊慰平生了。

In their never ending pursuit to uncover the next undervalued company, portfolio managers and investors often forget how equities, as a whole, fit into the stock market and business cycles. Though it is important to focus on the individual issues, it is never wise to forget about the surrounding environment and its positive or negative influences.
基金经理和投资人一门心思盯着个股，而忘记考虑宏观环境的影响，显然是不明智的。
The basic pattern of the business or economic cycle has four steps. These steps, though never exactly unfold the same during each cycle, the basic structure remains firm and should be remembered.
经济周期的基本模式分为四阶段，虽然每一次周期各有特点，但基本形态仍如下所示

1. Recession. A decline in the real GDP that occurs for at least two or more quarters. Recessions feed on themselves. During a recession, business people spend less than they once did. Because sales are failing, businesses do what they can to reduce their spending. They lay off workers, buy less merchandise, and postpone plans to expand. When this happens, business suppliers do what they can to protect themselves. They too lay off workers and reduce spending. Unemployment starts to rise (Chart 2).
1 衰退，GDP下滑持续两个季度以上，这种衰退自我蔓延。衰退中，商人尽可能生吃减用苟延残喘，因为业绩下滑，他们不得不减少化肥，辞掉工人，减少设备，推迟商业扩展计划。失业率上升。
 

As workers earn less, they spend less, and business income and profits decline still more. Businesses spend even less than before and lay off still more workers. The economy continues to slide. 而当工人收入减少，消费也就减少，进而导致商业收支持续下降。商人不得不继续砍掉费用和裁员，经济持续下滑。

2. Low Point, or Depression. State of the economy where there are large unemployment rates, a decline in annual income, and overproduction. The time at which the real GDP stops its decline and starts expanding; the lowest point. Sooner or later, the recession will reach the bottom of the business cycle. How long the cycle will remain at this low point varies from a matter of weeks to many months. During some depressions, such as the one in the 1930s, the low point has lasted for years.
低点，或叫做萧条。国家经济呈现高失业率，年收入下降和产能过剩。当此时GDP停止下跌趋于平稳，宏观经济达到最低点，衰退达到经济周期底部，这一阶段持续数周或数月。而在某些萧条比如20世纪30年代，低点持续了数年。

3. Expansion and Recovery. A period in which the real GDP grows; recovery from a recession. When business begins to improve a bit, firms will hire a few more workers and increase their orders of materials from their suppliers. Increased orders lead other firms to increase production and rehire workers. More employment leads to more consumer spending, further business activity, and still more jobs. Economists describe this upturn in the business cycle as a period of expansion and recovery.
扩张和复苏。这一期间GDP开始上升，从衰退中复苏。公司开始雇用更多工人并增加了从供应商的采购原材料订单，产业链上其他公司也如此。就业率回升导致消费增加，商业逐渐活跃，又创造了更多就业。

4. Peak. The point at which the real GDP stops increasing and begins its decline; the highest point. At the top, or peak, of the business cycle, business expansion ends its upward climb. Employment, consumer spending, and production hit their highest levels. A peak, like a depression, can last for a short or long period of time. When the peak lasts for a long time, we are in a period of prosperity.
顶峰，GDP停止增长并开始下降的点，即经济周期最高点。就业，消费和生产都达到了最高水平。和萧条一样，这个时期或长或短，如果持续很长时间，就呈现出一段繁荣时期。

The stock market (Chart 3) is a well proven leading indicated on the business cycle and normally leads by 6-9 months. The rise and fall of sectors within the equity markets provides ample clues to the investor of the correct phase of the business cycle.
股票市场被证明可以提前6到9个月显示经济周期，其上升和下降为研判经济周期提供丰富线索

For example, if a time slice from the last 2-3 months were examined closely, the following economic and stock sector evidence would be found. Interest rates are now falling (Chart 1). Gold and oil are making all-time highs. Defensive groups such as health care and staples are some of the top performing groups. Financials and discretionaries have started declining months ago (both are leading indicators on the stock market). Basic materials and consumer goods are trading flat. All of this data would suggest a peak in the economy has developed and that the stock market (usually 6-9 months behind the economy) has already topped. Technical models indicate the crest for global markets was in October.
举例，如果仔细研究最近两三个月，可以发现如下指标：利率下跌，黄金和石油创下历史最高，抗风险板块比如医疗健康和食品成为领头羊，金融和地产板块几个月前已开始领跌，基本原材料和消费品交易平稳。这些数据都显示经济顶峰正在形成，股票市场已位于最高位（领先6到9个月），各项技术指标显示全球市场波峰位于十月（这篇文章写于2008年）

Bottom line: The current fundamentals of a company can be greatly influenced by the surrounding economy. By understanding the basic structure of the business cycle, investors can determine the present position of the cycle and anticipate a weaker or stronger economy in the near future. The business cycle has one of the strongest influences on the present and future earnings of a organization.
底线：公司基本面受宏观经济影响巨大。通过了解经济周期基本结构，投资者可判定现在的经济周期阶段和未来经济走势强弱。经济周期经济体现在和未来的收益影响巨大。

Investment approach: Portfolios should be weighted toward sectors that have proven strength in economic contraction periods. This includes defensive groups, utilities and pharmaceuticals. Investors should also consider under weighting transportation, technology, basic industry and capital goods. These last groups usually perform poorly during economic slowdowns.
投资方式：投资组合应该偏重于那些在经济紧缩时仍然抢进的板块，包括抗周期的医药、基建等。也可以考虑做空运输、科技、基础工业和金融产品，在经济减缓时这些板块通常表现不佳。

Additional information about the economy, global equity markets and commodities can be found in the February newsletter.

Your comments are alway welcomed.

By Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA
www.technicalspeculator.com

COPYRIGHT © 2008 Donald W. Dony
Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA has been in the investment profession for over 20 years, first as a stock broker in the mid 1980′s and then as the principal of D. W. Dony and Associates Inc., a financial consulting firm to present.  He is the editor and publisher of the Technical Speculator, a monthly international investment newsletter, which specializes in major world equity markets, currencies, bonds and interest rates as well as the precious metals markets.   

Donald is also an instructor for the Canadian Securities Institute (CSI). He is often called upon to design technical analysis training programs and to provide teaching to industry professionals on technical analysis at many of Canada’s leading brokerage firms.  He is a respected specialist in the area of intermarket and cycle analysis and a frequent speaker at investment conferences.

Mr. Dony is a member of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA) and the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA).

Donald W. Dony Archive

从2008年到现在，亲身经历过一波疯狂——危机——渐入疯狂的演变，我多少体会到了投资人踏准经济周期的重要性。我目前的理解是，当经济低迷，市场环境不好时，大量中小企业濒临倒闭，这时是寻找虎落平阳的优质而价值被低估的企业的时候。这些企业往往已经很成熟，有一定规模，只是因为现金流的问题陷入困境，投资者可以以雪中送炭者的面目出现，博得一个划算的交易。而当经济进入复苏轨道，一方面是投资人进入收获季，低迷时期播下的种子已经长成麦子，可以在IPO收割了。而在所有人都在迷恋和追捧IPO的造福神话时，作为VC应该避免那些高成本的交易，转而寻找被人忽略的初创型的具有自身特点和技术门槛的企业，在宏观经济向好和高涨时，这些小企业有很大的机会获得飞速发展。投资人进入后要帮助企业迅速做大，至少要在一两年内再助其完成一两轮融资，能上市最好，暂时上不成也要帮他储备好足够的冬衣抵抗下一波周期的严寒。

科技图书馆，习惯上叫它大学城图书馆，是我非常喜欢的所在。大学城本身就在很偏僻的地方，学生也不是很多，特意来这里看书的人少之又少，但设施很棒，该有的书报杂志也都齐全，是个放松身心的好地方。上午没有去公司，跑到这里放松，正好报告厅在举行一场有关知识转移产业承接之类主题的论坛。请来了来自英国的剑桥、牛津的一些教授作报告，在这度过了一个惬意的上午，向演讲者问了问题，做了些笔记。

照片右侧是一个长得有点像凯瑞安·莫斯（黑客帝国里的崔妮蒂）的年轻女孩，大概是北大的留学生，整个上午几个演讲者轮番操一口伦敦腔侃侃而谈，她始终面无表情地飞速记着笔记（用英文），偶尔还戴上耳机听同声传译的汉语，估计是在就势练习听力。

说到英国，最近迷上了看英剧，之前的《yes minister》，现在的《Black Books》和《IT Crowd》都超赞。英剧较之美剧的笑点很诡异，剧情也更加荒诞，但这种小人物+怪胎的模式非常有味道和内涵，对现实颇多讽刺，弥散着浓烈的黑色幽默。

下午走访一家环保设备企业，交流很愉快。

今年早期，一位牧师朋友请我帮他看一下一份文件，说是给当地华人教会做的一个婚前辅导问卷，问我如何看待这些问题？我说中国人比较含蓄，没这么直接公开讨论财产、家务、自我形象、家庭背景的问题，一定是旁敲侧击，拐弯抹角地讲。这些问题我们也有，一样都不少，毕竟都是人，白人黑人黄人，人性的弱点大家都是差不多的。但是大部分时候，这些问题咱们不说。一般是吵架的时候才会翻出来。他说这是美国牧师或者咨询师常问的一些问题，没什么大不了。但我还是建议他不要用这个问卷。